Airport Traffic De-Mystified
My Letter to the News Herald, May 14 :
Your story on May 14 (no link, $ubscription) did not cover the airport board's full discussion
about the travel market in Bay County, and I do not think analysis requires
speculation.
This is not an "equipment" problem - the cancelled flights only account for
a fraction of the decline, and some if not most of those passengers were flown
on later flights. This is a market issue. The airport has not met any of its traffic
forecasts since 2000, when 217,000 enplaned were forecasted for 2005. The
actual traffic for 2005 is tracking toward 190,000 enplaned, about 12% (three
years) behind the forecast. It is pretty clear that several adverse factors are in play. First, the
forecasts were too high - FAA has reduced its forecast but our airport
consultants continue to raise theirs in pursuit of a new airport. Second, the
transition of hospitality units from "motels" to condos (and the demise
of entertainment venues) has dampened the Spring Break and seasonal market, at
least for now. Third, some potential visitors believe hurricane damage is
substantial, and they avoid unpleasantries like beach dredging. Fourth, the
early convening of schools has abbreviated the summer season. Mr. Patronis
commented that his restaurant business is down 11,000 visitors from 2004, a
figure exceeding the decline in air passengers because most visitors drive.
It is true that Delta and Northwest have limited the seats compared to some
markets, but this will continue as long as the alternative markets are also
dominated by Delta/Northwest (Delta and Northwest have code-sharing agreements
that effectively make them one network). Delta/Northwest gets the revenue
regardless of the airport selected in the region. Both Okaloosa/Eglin and
Tallahassee are substantially larger markets than Bay County and their traffic
is growing briskly, yet they have not been able to sustain a low-fare
competitor. Airlines discount some seats in these markets because even they
cannot fill mainline airplanes at full fares. Currently, there is very little
difference in fares among the markets, and the financial condition of airlines
may lead to even less competition. This is not a problem that can be solved by a local airport. Air traffic
in Bay County will grow as the economy grows, and airport infrastructure is not
limiting the economy, as shown by recent activity. In 2001, we had 22 to 24
airline departures daily - now we have 13, due to introduction of
larger regional-jet airplanes to handle the modest growth. Restoring the
schedule to 22 per day, using regional jets, would add capacity for 165,000
additional enplanements (to a total of 355,000, or approximately the year-2025
forecast). Blending in 3 to 5 737's would raise the capacity to the 2030
forecast and beyond. All of this flying will be LESS THAN 25 AIRLINE DEPARTURES
OVER A 16-HOUR DAY, and less than two departures per hour. This growth pattern
is typical of non-hub airports all over the country, until they reach the market
size to sustain a low-fare airline, which for us is about 2030. These traffic
statistics are common knowledge among airlines. Traffic, not local aspirations,
will drive airline route decisions. Of all our local infrastructure, the
airport has the most unused capacity and lead time.
2:40:21 PM 
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