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Saturday, May 14, 2005
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Airport Traffic De-Mystified
My Letter to the News Herald, May 14 :
Your story on May 14 (no link, $ubscription) did not cover the airport board's full discussion
about the travel market in Bay County, and I do not think analysis requires
speculation.
This is not an "equipment" problem - the cancelled flights only account for
a fraction of the decline, and some if not most of those passengers were flown
on later flights. This is a market issue. The airport has not met any of its traffic
forecasts since 2000, when 217,000 enplaned were forecasted for 2005. The
actual traffic for 2005 is tracking toward 190,000 enplaned, about 12% (three
years) behind the forecast. It is pretty clear that several adverse factors are in play. First, the
forecasts were too high - FAA has reduced its forecast but our airport
consultants continue to raise theirs in pursuit of a new airport. Second, the
transition of hospitality units from "motels" to condos (and the demise
of entertainment venues) has dampened the Spring Break and seasonal market, at
least for now. Third, some potential visitors believe hurricane damage is
substantial, and they avoid unpleasantries like beach dredging. Fourth, the
early convening of schools has abbreviated the summer season. Mr. Patronis
commented that his restaurant business is down 11,000 visitors from 2004, a
figure exceeding the decline in air passengers because most visitors drive.
It is true that Delta and Northwest have limited the seats compared to some
markets, but this will continue as long as the alternative markets are also
dominated by Delta/Northwest (Delta and Northwest have code-sharing agreements
that effectively make them one network). Delta/Northwest gets the revenue
regardless of the airport selected in the region. Both Okaloosa/Eglin and
Tallahassee are substantially larger markets than Bay County and their traffic
is growing briskly, yet they have not been able to sustain a low-fare
competitor. Airlines discount some seats in these markets because even they
cannot fill mainline airplanes at full fares. Currently, there is very little
difference in fares among the markets, and the financial condition of airlines
may lead to even less competition. This is not a problem that can be solved by a local airport. Air traffic
in Bay County will grow as the economy grows, and airport infrastructure is not
limiting the economy, as shown by recent activity. In 2001, we had 22 to 24
airline departures daily - now we have 13, due to introduction of
larger regional-jet airplanes to handle the modest growth. Restoring the
schedule to 22 per day, using regional jets, would add capacity for 165,000
additional enplanements (to a total of 355,000, or approximately the year-2025
forecast). Blending in 3 to 5 737's would raise the capacity to the 2030
forecast and beyond. All of this flying will be LESS THAN 25 AIRLINE DEPARTURES
OVER A 16-HOUR DAY, and less than two departures per hour. This growth pattern
is typical of non-hub airports all over the country, until they reach the market
size to sustain a low-fare airline, which for us is about 2030. These traffic
statistics are common knowledge among airlines. Traffic, not local aspirations,
will drive airline route decisions. Of all our local infrastructure, the
airport has the most unused capacity and lead time.
2:40:21 PM 
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Saturday, December 11, 2004
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US Air Express Quits Bay County and All Florida Service
US Air
Express announced this week that most service in Florida is being
discontinued. For Bay County, this means six less departures
daily (three to Orlando and three to Tampa).
Bay County had 21 airline departures daily when the Feasibility Study
to relocate the airport was issued in 2000. With these US
Air reductions, we now have TWELVE daily departures, all served by
Delta and Northwest. Delta and Northwest operate under
code-sharing agreements that provide common route structure and
pricing, so effectively Bay County is now part of only one airline
route system. Delta Connection's new service to Orlando should
benefit from the ex-US Air traffic.
Since the traffic forecasts only show FOUR new flights required by
2020, US Air's departure has provided all the airspace "de-confliction"
to be gained by relocation.
But we have drifted into the world of reality - not to be confused with
the world according to the airport board and its consultants/boosters -
stay tuned.
12:11:22 PM
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Saturday, September 25, 2004
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Delta's Restructuring
It looks like a "big bang" is in store for Delta
in January, but will it be done with or without bankruptcy? Delta
will probably have to go through Chapter 11 to achieve the cost
reductions necessary for survival.
What about the restructuring plan? No airline has ever shrunk to
prosperity, and the Delta plan looks promising by preserving or even
modestly expanding capacity. The Dallas hub is collapsed, but
overall the airline gains 50-60 mainline flights and loses 70-80
regional flights for a modest capacity increase. It's not clear
how the new schedule can be flown with 7,000 fewer employees unless a
good portion of the layoffs will be replaced with contract/offshore
staffing.
Locally, Bay County gains one flight daily to/from Orlando, and loses
weekend service to Dallas/Ft. Worth. USAir has offered
Orlando service, but never jet service, so the Delta Connection flight
has potential. The Orlando flight will also test Delta's plan for
more intra-Florida service. Historically, east-west service along
the Gulf coast has been weak, but the intra-Florida focus is a recent
pattern that may succeed.
Delta is moving at last to bring its costs and fares in line with the
mass market. At Cincinnati, fares have been simplified and
reduced in a move Delta says will be expanded over the other
hubs. That is good news for customers and ultimately the only way
forward for Delta. Let's hope the benefits reach down to smaller
markets like Bay county.
10:02:53 AM
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Monday, August 30, 2004
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On Politics and the War
As we approach the election season, Britt Blaser
has some cutting insights on politics and the war on terrorists.
He also points to John Robb, who poses the most coherent view I have seen of
the assymetric war.
I can't improve on their points, so read on...
1:38:40 PM
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Sunday, July 25, 2004
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Airtran Quits Tallahassee - Whither Bay County?
AirTran announced this week
they are quitting Tallahassee, both north to Atlanta and south to
Tampa. I thought AirTran had survived the competition in TLH, but
apparently Delta swamped the market and made it too painful to
continue. Back in April 2002, I expressed doubt in this blog that
AirTran could make money in Tallahassee. Subsequently, they
leased some R-jets, reduced their service in Tallahassee to all R-jet,
and announced that "At last, supply and demand are in balance in the
Tallahassee market...". That seemed to work until this year, when
AirTran announced the R-jet costs were too high and cancelled the
leases. Then they tried to serve Tallahassee with their
mainline Boeing 717, whereupon Delta piled four more mainline "loss
leaders" into the market. This was the last straw and AirTran
capitulated, as they did earlier in Eglin/Okaloosa.
This leaves the only discount service in NW Florida at Pensacola, and
again it is AirTran. Pensacola's airport commissioned an
excellent traffic study in 2003, which concluded that AirTran was
setting the price level in Pensacola and even influencing Delta and
Northwest to compete on price in Eglin/Okaloosa to prevent "leakage" to
AirTran.
At Tallahassee, AirTran was capturing a portion of the Bay County
market, but Delta was not competing on price from Panama City/Bay
County airport, choosing to limit seats instead. AirTran's
departure from TLH probably means higher fares in both markets,
although Delta will have to discount some seats in TLH until they can
unwind the oversupply they used to defeat AirTran.
Whither Bay County? This cannot be good news for the new
"regional" airport, because it confirms that somewhere north of 500,000
enplanements are necessary to attract a discount airline (Tallahassee
had 512,000 last year including AirTran, and will relapse to less for
now. Pensacola has about 800,000.) Bay County is
struggling to approach 200,000 enplaned, and will probably
not reach 500,000 before 2030-2035.
What about Southwest? Pensacola's traffic study concluded that
Pensacola could not attract Southwest yet, but PENSACOLA HAS THE
ATTRIBUTES SOUTHWEST WILL SEEK WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT ( Interstate
highways to collect regional passengers, over a million potential
enplanements, of which Southwest could expect to get 400,000).
Southwest will probably replace AirTran in Pensacola someday, but not
for a long, long, time.
It appears to me that Bay County is still the "odd man out", too small
to attract a discount airline and too close to more competitive
airports (Eglin/Okaloosa and Tallahassee). If the construction of
a West Bay/St. Joe airport is fast-tracked, it will face all these
competitive pressures with no effective strategy. Better relax
and try to get a better deal from St. Joe because the only near-term
purpose for the new airport is window-dressing for the Sector
Plan. We are on track to squander $400 Million in grants,
relocate all the jobs at the airport away from Panama City, commute 50
miles for the same air service, kill much of General Aviation, and
MAYBE attract 10 new charters per year. The only people
pushing for the new airport are the Chamber of Commerce and St. Joe -
what are THEY bringing to the table, if not passenger traffic?
9:14:18 PM
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Monday, June 14, 2004
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Musings on Air Force Two (A Boeing 757-200 Today)
The Vice President visited Bay County today, which put the new-airport crowd into absolute contortions to explain why the 757 could visit our present airport and yet we must have a new one to accomodate fullsize jets. Amy Ausley, "Partner in Progress", stuck her neck out the furthest, "explaining" that an airline 757 would have to be essentially empty to take off from Bay County.
I just looked up the range of a 757-200 with full passengers and bags from a 6000 foot runway: it is approximately 2500 miles, which is consistent with the 2000-mile flights daily from 5700-foot Orange County CA. Let's see, from Bay County it is 750 miles to New York, 2000 miles to Seattle, so Vancouver would just about max out the 757 from here.
Just remember, this is not about aviation. It IS about real estate and politics, the true economic base of Bay County.
8:32:03 PM
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Monday, March 15, 2004
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Myth of the Week - "Florida Aviation Trust Fund"
Airport advocates have again stated that the new airport is being funded by a "State Aviation Trust Fund". No
such fund exists. The FDOT funds spent so far (over $20 Million)
have come from targeted special appropriations controlled by
legislative leadership. Without this unusual political funding, the project would be proceeding much more deliberately.
5:33:46 PM
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The Airport Referendum: 55-45 No, but to What Effect?
We finally had our non-binding referendum, and in spite of the
presidential primaries being already decided, over 20% turned out to
express themselves on the new airport.
The results are a resounding vote of "no confidence" in the
present approach. It is time for local elected and appointed
officials to require accountability from the airport manager and his
consultants. They have spun a convoluted "story", going so
far as to collude in a bald negative political
campaign against themselves . Where is the impartial justification, the objective analysis of alternativess, in short the case for this project?
5:02:25 PM
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Sunday, December 14, 2003
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"Partners in Progress" - A Great Investment
The political goodwill created by "Partners in Progress" paid off handsomely on Friday. Assuming St. Joe contributed circa $1 Million to the PIP "BayCountyFirst" campaign, the return on investment was super.
On a day when the stock market stood still and the only news about The St. Joe Company was Bay County's approval of the Sector Plan land use proposals, JOE stock surged 5%, adding $130 Million to market capitalization. The holdings of management insiders gained millions too. Anybody holding December 35 call options gained 60% overnight!
Well done, Bay County Commission and "Partners"! Here's hoping you get the gravy you anticipate soon. After all, it's "our" turn.
5:24:33 PM
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Wednesday, November 26, 2003
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Southwest to be Featured on A&E in 2004
From the Southwest web site:
It's a Bird. It's a Plane. It's Southwest Airlines in a New A&E Network Documentary Series
Southwest has partnered with A&E Network for an all-new, real-life adventure series - a behind the scenes look at the drama surrounding commercial airline travel. The ten half-hour episodes of Airline are set to
debut in January 2004. Los Angeles International and Chicago Midway are two of the airports that will
feature prominently in the documentary. Airline will not only focus on the highs and lows of passengers who hop on board Southwest flights bound for destinations across the United States. The program will
also follow our airline's staff and crew, from the high-flying pilots through to the check in staff and supervisors who work with Customers day in and day out.
7:30:54 AM
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Wednesday, November 12, 2003
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AirTran Solicits Vote on Next Service Point
Airtran asks here for customers to choose the next AirTran city from 36 suggested markets. Neither Bay County nor Huntsville (our current darling) is listed, although write-ins are invited. Citizens in Huntsville are organizing a write-in Campaign. Our "Partners in Progress" are silent, while still bleating about "doing nothing".
12:03:50 PM
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Monday, November 10, 2003
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News Herald "Flying High" Airport Traffic Story - More Numbers
The story on Bay County airport traffic deserves a bit more analysis. Dividing the total passengers by the total flights shows the usual 30 passengers per flight. An 8% gain over 2002 looks good, but 2002 was a very depressed year. The bigger story is that the projected traffic for 2003 (approximately 380,000) is 6% less than predicted for 2003 in the Feasibility Study recommending relocation. The airport is approximately two years behind the traffic forecast FAA made in 2000, and $3 Million behind the capital surplus forecast in the Feasibility Study.
7:57:38 AM
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Tuesday, October 28, 2003
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AirTran Reduces Capacity in Tallahassee, Exits Subsidy
The regional jet continues to re-shape service to small markets (anybody listening in Bay County?) AirTran was able to drop its subsidy request in Tallahassee after reducing its service to all regional jets effective in November. An AirTran spokesman said "We have at last matched our capacity to demand in the Tallahassee market."
Delta continues to over-supply Tallahassee, but watch for a re-balancing if Delta concludes it cannot dislodge AirTran. And yes, my crystal ball was wrong - the R-Jet ate it, and it now appears AirTran has found a formula to succeed in 500,000-enplanement markets.
AirTran Jet Connect, the regional-jet operator, is probably the best bet for low-fare service to Bay County. Stay tuned...
6:54:14 AM
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Sunday, October 19, 2003
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Our Beautiful Bay
Had an opportunity Friday to go sailing with a friend on St. Andrew Bay. A gorgeous day, great conversation, and a few hours of consummate leisure/sport, sailing. Sailing is like poetry, totally unnecessary in the modern age, but so satisfying at a primal level. Thanks, friend, for a great day!
8:10:00 AM
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Saturday, October 18, 2003
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My Guest Appearance at the Airport Options Forum
Thanks to everybody who attended my talk at Gulf Coast College on October 16 - I think we all learned something, and I hope we had a little fun too. The airport debate has been far too acrimonious of late. I was disappointed that neither the airport board nor the County Commission attended. "Partners in Progress" sent a videophotographer, and hopefully our local officialdom will see some or all of it. I will do a repeat for any public body or civic/church group having a screen to host a PowerPoint presentation (the material almost demands detailed graphics for the discussion). My op-ed in the News-Herald is a very compressed abstract.
My apologies for the length of the lecture - it should have been covered in 45 minutes and I went over an hour.
I would like to put the material on this (or another) web site, but the files are large and I may not be able to afford the bandwidth.
About the groups who hosted the forum: their concerns are primarily environmental protection and growth management, and I share some of those concerns but not as passionately. My "aviation planning" concerns and their "community planning" concerns just overlap enough that they made the arrangements for convening the meeting. Thanks to their volunteers and donors for making it possible!
Thanks also to WKGC-FM 90.7 for broadcasting the entire presentation and Q&A. The station manager saw the tremendous public interest in my viewpoint during my appearance on "RapLine" October 13, and decided to cover the forum in spite of the limitations of radio for a largely graphic presentation.
9:23:47 AM
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Mike Boyd Reports on his Forecast Conference
Please visit Boyd Group and follow the links to the 2003 Forecast Conference and Mike's always-interesting "Hot Flash".
8:57:38 AM
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Thursday, October 09, 2003
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Boyd Group Issues Passenger Traffic Forecast
The New York Times covers Mike Boyd's Nashville forecast conference - as usual, Mike breaks some surprising scoops, including the rise of Long Beach and Flint MI.
6:50:44 PM
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Sunday, September 14, 2003
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Coming into Focus: Cost of the Sector Plan
The proposed new airport is at least $252 Million, and now it's becoming clear that the 37,000 acre "West Bay Preservation Area" is 10,000 acres of pinelands donated for airport mitigation, about 14,000 more acres of pinelands for various mitigations, and finally about 13,000 acres of waterfront and riparian buffer lands to be offered for sale to the State of Florida, subject to funding for the airport being approved first. If pineland donated for the airport is $3,000 per acre, let's assume conservation land is $12,000 per acre, being much more desirable. So, conservation costs will total $150+ Million.
Summing up, the front-end cost of the Sector Plan is north of $400 Million, before the first tax nickel is collected or the first industrial employer is recruited. If the State declines to buy the conservation land, it remains the property of The St. Joe Company, and the shoreline development wrangle continues. The airport is moved to the St. Joe Sector, and the eastern county waits for the St. Joe tide to lift its boat. You won't need to hold your breath - this tide isn't coming any time soon.
10:03:48 AM
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Thursday, September 11, 2003
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Aviation Manufacturing in Wichita: Minus 14,000 Jobs
The TopekaCapitalJournal reports 14,000 jobs at average wage of $50,000 have been lost. The Wichita economy, one of the most manufacturing-oriented in the country, is a wreck because the aviation industry is in the lowest cycle in history.
This huge overhang of aerospace capacity does not bode well for startups and aspiring aviation industry recruiters. Our airport boosters should take note...
http://www.cjonline.com/stories/090703/bus_turmoil.shtml
7:44:09 AM
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Thursday, August 28, 2003
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News Herald Gets It Right After All
Kevin Porter followed up on the Flight 4441 story, and found (as his TV colleagues did) that Delta Connection returned Flight 4441 to Atlanta because Atlanta has mechanics and spares, not because of runway length. Porter also noted that the companion story of a USAir Express diversion from Ft. Walton (12,000 ft runway) to Bay County was also driven by maintenance capabilities - Bay County has mechanics for the Beech 1900.
9:12:25 AM
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Wednesday, August 27, 2003
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The Flight 4441 Story - Consider Your News Source
Today's News Herald ($Subscription required) reported that Delta Connection Flight 4441 turned back to Atlanta a couple of days ago after the pilot announced a minor mechanical problem and that the runway in Bay County was too short to land with this problem. The News Herald reported this part of the story, along with the connection with the proposal to relocate the airport to the St. Joe Sector. The NH also reported that it was unable to determine what the problem was on Flight 4441.
WMBB - Ch. 13 reported the same story several hours earlier than the NH deadline, and followed up with Delta to verify the report. Delta stated the airplane returned to Atlanta because the airline had mechanics and resources there to repair the problem, and that the runway at Panama City was adequate if the crew had chosen to land here.
Given a choice, an airline will always go to a maintenance base rather than a remote airport with few resources to fix a problem. This scenario occurs almost every day in an operation with hundreds of airplanes and thousands of flights.
The News Herald was either lazy or biased toward the version of the story that supports new-airport boosters - take your choice.
It is truly regrettable that the airport relocation debate has sunk to this level. To their credit, airport officials did not comment publicly on this episode.
6:17:36 AM
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Saturday, August 23, 2003
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LinkAlert: Mike Boyd on the Airline Biz
I have added a link to the The Boyd Group - Mike Boyd is as no-nonsense as you will find among airport consultants. I don't know how he keeps attracting clients with his contrarian approach, but he tells the truth. Looks like there is still a market for it.
12:42:07 AM
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Tuesday, August 19, 2003
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A Nice Week in the Panhandle
Last week was an exception to the rain-rain days of this summer. We had children/grandchildren in town and took time to do some sightseeing. South Walton county and Grayton Beach (the town and the state park) have to be the prettiest accessible beaches in the U.S. My personal favorite is Camp Helen in western Bay county, but the half-mile trek is too much for toddlers and infants. Tip: put a chair under the boardwalk at Grayton state park, no need for an umbrella...
5:01:16 PM
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An Old Neighbor in Atlanta is in the News
The Hapeville Ford plant (literally at the end and below Runway 8L-26R at Atlanta airport) has a murky future...
Ford Plant Finds Efficiency Is No Protector. Ford's plant near Atlanta is one of the most productive car factories on the continent, but its future is in doubt. By Danny Hakim with Anne Berryman. [New York Times: Business]
4:43:41 PM
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PIP's Media Advisors
The Victory Group of Tampa is the apparent brain trust who advised the Airport Authority to "go negative" against itself. Victory Group's claim to fame is the meteoric rise of U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, the orange-grove heiress who was Jeb's co-chair for the 1998 campaign and later was Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election recount(s).
As I have said before, the airport project does create jobs: $20 Million or so for Bechtel in Orlando so far, . and now who-knows-how-much for this Tampa political boiler room. Bay County is not totally left out - Wm. Harrison (registered lobbyist for both Bechtel and St. Joe) is prospering. Be patient, though, no doubt the 3,000-job startup (Alliance Aviation) which couldn't raise $10 Million will return soon to claim the glass slipper and lift us all to prosperity.
4:26:50 PM
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Friday, August 15, 2003
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Channel 13 Live Appearance - And Some Suggestions for PIP
"Partners in Progress", real pips from what I've seen, unveiled a 30-second TV spot lamenting our "unsafe" airport. Channel 13 asked me to comment about it on their 6 AM newshour. I expressed my disappointment that community leaders would stoop to a negative advertising campaign which discredits our area. What is next? "Hurry Down to Bay County and Drown!" or "Bay County - Canoeing in Your Own Front Yard"?
As I've said before, this airport scheme needs no critics, the boosters are killing it themselves...
On the serious question of improving the airport, I pointed out two ways to solve the runway standards issue, but since neither involved spending $250 Million or anchoring the St. Joe Sector with a new airport, I don't expect much interest from the airport district.
1:23:15 PM
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My Date with the Democrats
Last night, I gave a short presentation on the airport relocation issue to the Bay County Democratic Party. I was well received and these folks seemed to appreciate hearing some factual background and my opinion on the issue. County Commissioners Gainer and Brock responded with their viewpoint. It was a quite different atmosphere from the recent Republican Party meeting on the same issue. At that meeting, two legislative staffers were sent in as "parliamentary gunslingers" to make pre-emptive motions and limit discussion so that Republicans did not hear my viewpoint, even though I am a member of the Executive Committee.
Both parties have (rightly, in my opinion) declined to get involved on either side of the issue. How they reached that conclusion was quite a contrast... Someday, I may learn to play the "public meeting" game; so far the returns on the effort are minimal.
1:07:43 PM
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Wednesday, August 06, 2003
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Dick Morris Thinks the Net is Arriving in Politics At Last
His piece in Frontpage is intriguing... DISCLAIMER: I am no fan of Howard Dean or any Democrat presidential candidate. The Dean internet effort MAY the beginning of the end for big TV-blitz campaigns, but I'm not convinced yet. OTOH, Dick Morris is no fool.
6:16:06 PM
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Planning Commission: Where To Now?
I have appeared a couple of times at planning commission hearings, and although we usually differed on the issue, I developed a lot of respect for the sacrifices these volunteer board members made to untangle the rules of land use and code interpretation. Doing this job responsibly required a lot of research and sensitivity, particularly when dealing with neighborhood disputes.
The Bay County Commission has re-organized the planning commission into a five-member board, each member to be appointed by an individual county commissioner. Apparently each member is to be a surrogate for the county commissioner who appointed him/her. Why would a self-respecting volunteer undertake such a difficult appointment only to be seen as an extension of an elected official? It will be interesting to see who rises to the task...
8:52:49 AM
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Sunday, August 03, 2003
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Saturday, August 02, 2003
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WMBB - Airport Q&A: Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
I was out of town, so missed the video, but looked at the web transcripts. It appears the issues were proximity, jobs, and benefits.
Proximity: First the facts: the new Bay county airport will be the furthest airport from its host community in Florida. Despite the hype about "regional" traffic, the new airport is a simple relocation with no significant new capabilities - a 2000 foot runway extension for $100,000 per foot. Panama City/Bay County will be just another client, not the focus of air service. Citizens should recognize that this is a State of Florida airport district, not a local board.
The boosters can never stop at the facts - there is always an over-the-top claim too. This time we are told that passengers will drive from Tallahassee to Ebro (yes, THAT Tallahassee: state capital, major university, low-fare airline, two interstate highways...). You don't have to be an expert to doubt this claim...
Jobs: This is where the debate should be centered, since the aviation benefits are far less than the cost. Boosters say a new airport "creates opportunities". Compared to what? The "target industies" of our economic office are automobile parts manufacturing and aviation/aerospace industry. Assuming the automobile parts are destined for factories in Alabama and Georgia, no case has been made for the advantage of a NW Florida location far from interstates. If the idea is to attract an auto plant, we are building the wrong type of airport. Aerospace is problematic because it is strongly cyclical and the cycle is at its lowest point since 1953. There is enormous unused capacity in aerospace facilities all over the country - new facilities are at a competitive disadvantage due to cost. The overhaul/maintenance sector, specifically heavy maintenance on the regional jet/large bizjet is a possibility, but again competition is heavy: several major maitenance facilities have been closed in the airline retrenchment. Engine and component maintenance is a non-starter because a new facility cannot compete with the existing huge technology centers that can absorb much more work at marginal cost.
Benefits: For the average local citizen: very few for many years. For a few lobbyists, insiders, connected consultants, and contractors: it's raining money! $250 Million in the next few years, then a pause to "discover" the new airport would be more successful if it was just bigger, then another cycle of $Milllions, and perhaps by then the region will need more airport - say about 2030...
There has been a huge reversal of cause and effect here: when we have a larger and more robust economy, an airport will follow. A modest relocation of an existing airport will not cause a more robust economy.
The local economy's real future lies in real estate development, associated services, and health care. We should direct government resources toward managing those sectors for responsible growth and profitability, public benefit and private quality of life. Grotesquely front-loaded "infrastructure" is political pork, not rational development. Orderly planning and buying or setting aside land for an airport makes sense; stuffing $250 Million into it now does not.
9:59:24 AM
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Friday, August 01, 2003
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Truth Is Stranger...
The Pentagon has dropped Admiral Poindexter's plan to open a futures market (yes, that is a futures market) in world terrorism events...
only in America...
8:38:50 PM
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Tuesday, July 29, 2003
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WMBB - Tuesday Segment on Airport Funding
The big hole in tonight's answer was the "One-third from State of Florida Aviation Trust Fund Paid by Ticket Tax" - such a fund does not exist. So far $22 Million has been granted in discretionary legislative appropriations, essentially a slush fund directed by developer lobbying and a couple of powerful House figures. (Good folks but way off the edge with this one. The $8 Million grant in 2002 was delivered very quietly, didn't even appear in the session report. If it had been $80,000 for a school crossing, the papers would be all over it.)
The project is not in the FDOT Work Program, it is entirely dependent on continuing support from the legislative delegation. The "next big thing" is called the "Strategic Intermodal System", a new round of discretionary projects in which Bay County is an "emerging airport" and Ft. Walton is not, although Ft. Walton/Okaloosa met the selection criteria and Bay County did not. The "commission" for this one includes a short-line railroad representative (wonder who THAT will be?) and Chris Corr (of St. Joe) among others.
The project depends on the willingness of the legislature to carry enough water to keep it afloat- the local funds are all short: land is not cash, the present airport probably won't net $38 Million, and the airport bonding capacity is conjectural at best. Bechtel also lobbies well in Washington, so more than one-third federal money is a possibility. The project needs to start showing some progress though - the burn rate is pretty high and $22 Million before drawing a sheet of plans is not stellar performance.
Although the airport district now issues bonds over its own seal, local officials can still endorse bonds voluntarily. They may take a pass on endorsing these bonds - the airport polls very poorly with likely voters. A factor any aspiring politician (anybody running in District 6?) should consider...
9:39:27 PM
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WMBB-TV's Week-long Series on Airport: Some Commentary
WMBB-TV is running 5 segments this week on airport relocation, apparently with emphasis on the Chamber-of-Commerce viewpoint. Here is my e-mail to the anchor, Chris Cato, on the Monday segment.
4:48:31 PM
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Monday, July 07, 2003
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News Herald Runs 3-Part Series on Airport Relocation
I was "featured" in Part 2 today, pictured as an "opponent" as usual, although I prefer "critic". My differences with the Airport Board run more to schedules and proper justification, not no-growth opposition. The Board has received $20 Million in Florida DOT grants, based in part on the claim that building a new airport costs $111 Million less than improving the present airport. This is based on the false premise that the public would allow a destructive $350 Million expansion at the present site. The real alternatives are spending $250+ Milllion now for a new airport, or using the existing airport until a new one is financially viable. The Board has never seriously looked at realistic improvements, always reaching for a "grand plan" for filling the bay or moving to the pinelands years before the traffic will bear the cost.
Unfortunately, I can't link you to the story because the News Herald site is subscription-only...
8:10:27 AM
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Saturday, June 21, 2003
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Paris Air Show Attracts Hopefuls - Our Own Ted Clem is There
New York Times reports states, cities swarming to entice aerospace industries despite slowdown and cyclical layoffs common in the field.
4:18:02 PM
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Tuesday, April 29, 2003
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FAA Announces May 13 Public Info Meeting on Airport EIS
The meeting will cover "Purpose and need for the project and alternatives identified to date."...
Gulf Coast College, May 13, 2003, 5 - 7PM. Full text of FAA notice.
9:23:45 PM
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Bay County Airport Issues Moving Fast - District V Commissioner Ropa Speaks Out
The Bay County Planning Commission voted 8-1 to submit the amendment to the Comp Plan for the new airport. Before the issue even reached the County Commission, Commissioner Ropa fired off this letter to St. Joe Company CEO Peter Rummel.
9:12:16 PM
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Friday, April 04, 2003
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New York Times Closes Archive
Sadly, the NYT has moved its backdated articles to an abstracted archive - full-text articles cost $2.95. In the future, I will note this when linking to NYT content. So much for the newspaper of record...
10:43:48 PM
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Fair and Balanced Update: The 7,000 Jobs and Low-Fare Objectives of New UK Airport
I agree with one thing - any new airport should have some incremental value; in this case "the longest runway in Europe".
Go-ahead for new airport on RAF base. Guardian Unlimited Apr 4 2003 9:52PM ET [Moreover - moreover...]
9:23:03 PM
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Thursday, April 03, 2003
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The Real Ft. Myers Story
The Panama City News Herald (1) ran a story today on the Southwest Florida International Airport in Ft. Myers. It is Orwellian to read how distressed Ft. Myers was in 1983, but that is a story easy to verify (or not) if you are interested. I was active in airport development when this airport was built and opened, and the whole story is very interesting. Here's an excerpt from the official RSW airport web site with highlights in red... contrast the justification and community support with our local experience. The big difference in these projects is the impact of airline deregulation in 1978 (there was huge unserved demand in SW Florida back then; today all routes are available to meet demand) and the traffic count: Ft. Myers had traffic in 1983 approximately equal to the forecast for Bay County in 35 years or so. If I am 100% wrong, it will be 17 years and I apologize in advance.
Both communities would have an "aviation future" with or without a new airport - I notice that RSW now claims all the economic benefits "abandoned" by closing FMY to airline flights (it is still there and bursting with bizjets). That's a bit disingenuous, but not as troubling as our airport board's claims in funding applications. Ft. Myers needed an airport, our boosters just want one a decade or two before they can justify it.
The latest "sales point" is job generation. Since only one version of the future will unfold, we will just have to "win-win". If we get the high-pay jobs, the new airport did it, if we don't - on to the next excuse, but St. Joe has the airport as a freebie to enhance the pinelands - I guess that is a "lose-win" but somebody wins, just not the people who staked the game. It is a shame that a realistic airport plan worthy of public support has not been offered.
(1) You may not find the story - the News Herald has an airtight content-protection policy to prevent online reading unless you subscribe to the website.
6:55:36 PM
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Saturday, March 22, 2003
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NPR'S "Living on Earth" Discovers the Imperiled Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers
This broadcast on March 21 covers the water-sharing dilemma and the outright peril of the Apalachicola River watershed. Interviews with citizens and experts, observations of the decline of the rivers... from the spring in North Georgia to Apalachee Bay.
We in Bay County don't have Atlanta upstream to blame if our own St. Andrew Bay watershed is abused...
7:15:16 AM
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Friday, March 14, 2003
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Macroeconomics According to Cal-Berkeley: Can Japan's Deflation Happen Here?
My daughter studied undergrad economics at Cal, and I have followed her department head's weblog (it's the "Brad DeLong" link on the left).
There has been a long thread there about deflation in Japan and the likelihood for deflation in the USA. As an airline retiree, I would argue that deflation is rampant in the travel/hospitality sector. The airline bankruptcies are textbook low revenue/high cost failures, and the hospitality/travel/conference sector seems close behind. If the trend reaches critical mass, the automobile/energy sector could go "poof" too. Let's hope for a safe landing soon (too late for a soft one!).
3:01:35 PM
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Wednesday, March 12, 2003
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The End of Privacy? - Maybe Not, but "Personal Recording" may be Useful Along the Shore
At a weblog called Escapable Logic, Britt Blaser is noodling on a world where everybody's activities are tracked on a "Personal Flight Recorder".
I'm not quite ready for that, but it brings up a project I have in mind.
 Rather than prolong the grinding debate about the right way to develop our local shorelines, I intend to video the entire shoreline of St. Andrew Bay, burn DVD's of the footage, and donate it to the Library. In the future, students of the region can compare the circa-2003 images with contemporary views, then decide whether to believe officialdom or their own lying eyes...
10:24:15 AM
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Monday, March 10, 2003
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Bombardier Aerospace is Cutting Another 3,000 Jobs...
at its plants in Toronto, Montreal and Belfast in the seemingly endless effort by the industry to rationalize some of the worst market conditions in decades. And although Bombardier's Wichita plant was spared, the announcement came as the U.S. Department of Labor released statistics showing aerospace employment is at its lowest level since 1953, with 689,000 jobs... more from AVWEB.COM
7:53:28 AM
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Friday, March 07, 2003
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The Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science
The courts have responsibility to validate scientific claims. Here's a recommended methodology.
12:20:47 PM
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Tuesday, March 04, 2003
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Wednesday, February 19, 2003
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Another Bubble?
We in NW Florida are having a milder downturn than many placess, because real estate development is the core of our economy. How long will it last? Here's food for thought:
Housing Construction Hits 16-Year High. Construction of new homes and apartments rose in January to the highest level in 16 years as low mortgage rates continued to power a housing boom. By The Associated Press. [New York Times: Business]
8:48:55 PM
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Monday, February 17, 2003
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NOW with Bill Moyers
The Bill Moyers crew is in the Panhandle this week, doing essentially a video version of the St. Petersburg Times story on St. Joe Co. and the sweeping development plans for NW Florida.
The Bay County airport relocation is a "keystone" in those plans, so I had my opportunity to comment on it for the Moyers crew. I expressed my usual reservations about the urgency attached to this project by St. Joe and our public officials, and about the lack of patience so far from St. Joe. I'm sure most of it will be on the cutting room floor, but watch for the show in April.
We never know where our interests will carry us, but if you had said to this old Republican a year ago that I would be helping Moyers with anything, I would have said you were nuts.
7:05:22 PM
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